Lessons to be Learned from this Pandemic
In the aftermath of any crisis, it's always prudent for us as a society to look back and see what we could have done better. And while there are specific individual lessons to be learned about preparedness for a pandemic, I'll leave most of the broad issues pertaining to public health preparedness to policy experts in that field.
But what I want to address here is our own response to a pending crisis. And I'm addressing it now because I want people to pay attention to how this has unfolded up to now, and how it unfolds moving forward.
Of course, we're not out of the woods yet. We're barely into the woods. Most of the disruption to our lives has to do with the response to the pandemic - cancellation of sports leagues, of public events, closure of public venues, widespread quarantine recommendations, TP shortages...
Make no mistake: These reactions are warranted. Covid-19, if not contained, will be one of the biggest crises ever faced by our civilization. There's still a lot we don't know, but based on conservative estimates of its Case Fatality Rate, we can expect tens of millions of fatalities worldwide.
And it's probably not going to be contained, generally speaking. China and South Korea have had some success in limiting their own epidemics, so there's hope that maybe we won't see quite the infection count of a totally uncontained pandemic, but we're still looking at something very severe here. The Italian experience should show all of us just how sensitive we are to a public health crisis - and the confirmed infection count in Italy remains, at this moment, remains less than one half of one tenth of one percent of their population...and we're talking about an infection that could reach 70% or higher.
And yet...there's still an inclination in some quarters to look at the extreme response, and the resulting economic impact, and suggest that the low infection count and death count makes those responses overreactions. The WHO declared a pandemic on March 10, but it's not hard to find plenty of people - both officials and members of the public - querying its seriousness both before and after that declaration.
On or about February 26, the President of the United States reflected on the then-15 cases in the country, and claimed that it was going to decline to be "close to zero". On March 9, he tweeted:
This past weekend, we saw a State Governor and a prominent member of the US Congress encouraging people to continue to go out to restaurants and use public services. This week, Trump has bragged about how well under control it is in the US.
From YouTubers, to Fox News, to various memes, there have been large numbers of people trying to 'add some perspective' by comparing the case and death count (so far) to influenza.
There is a lot that we don't know about Covid-19. We don't know exactly how contagious it is, but we know that, conservatively, it's a lot more contagious than influenza. We don't know exactly how deadly it is, but we know that, conservatively, it's a lot more deadly than most strains of influenza.
We're seeing those last vestiges of "This isn't a big deal" fade into the background. Trump has changed his tune, claiming to have regarded it as a pandemic long before it was designated as a pandemic (though his tone, very unfortunately, remains one of 'tragedy averted', claiming to have taken appropriate actions to mitigate the crisis); Fox commentators have stopped minimizing it; and the broader public is beginning to see the anticipated exponential growth around the world. Even still, there are kids partying on Spring Break, snowbirds refusing to come home, and Florida's governor refusing to close beaches.
The gravitas of this situation is one that can't help but dawn slowly on us, as a society.
For my part, I thought I was prepared. I've been looking at expert analyses and running my own numbers for five or six weeks now, and I've reached my own high-confidence conclusions that this is going to be a real and severe crisis. (Not a "We're all going to run out of food and toilet paper" crisis, but a crisis nonetheless.) In the last several days, as businesses shut down, and dystopian announcement signs herald various closures "UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE" in a manner reminiscent of any number of post-apocalyptic movies and games, and as the health system braces for what's coming in what will seem like the calm before the storm, I've realized just how emotionally and psychologically unprepared I was for the actual arrival of this time.
And it isn't just about messaging and psychological preparedness - though, in this context, messaging is important, because social distancing is a genuinely important societal activity that is going to happen less if our leaders are playing down the scope of the crisis. There are also genuine response failures. Some are preparatory, like cuts to the CDC's pandemic preparedness programs; others are early responses, like the absolute fiasco in CDC's refusal to accept the WHO's testing guidelines, and faults in the development of its own test kits; others are early screening and contact-tracing problems, like allowing ourselves to fall behind the curve in terms of self-isolation recommendations for returns from epidemic zones: For instance, by the time Alberta recommended travelers from Iran self-isolate, there were about 1500 reported infections in Iran, and multiple reported cases of infected Canadians returning from Iran.
But our lack of preparedness, and the tendency in certain quarters to minimize it until too late...there will be a price to pay for that. And I think that we need to keep it, somewhere in the back of our minds, WHY we're paying that price.
In an article in 1980, renowned science fiction author Isaac Asimov published an article in Newsweek, including the following:
The internet is an astonishing tool for the sharing of information. The real-time consolidation of Covid-19 is, in its own way, a stunning display of human innovation that could not have happened twenty years ago.
And yet it is an equally powerful tool for disinformation. I can't tell you how many pseudo-scientific myths I've seen cross my social media feeds, including but not limited to:
But there are established channels of misinformation on the internet. From profiteering peddlers of conspiracy theories, to hostile foreign troll farms, to domestic special interest and political groups, there are a lot of people trying to mislead us, for various agendas. You may not actually pay attention to these specific individuals with specific agendas, but you're likely to see memes and posts coming from those corners of the internet, working through your social media feed. And people, on the whole, turn out to be really awful at differentiating between legitimate information from reliable sources, and misinformation. On vaccines, despite all the medical evidence that they are overwhelmingly safe and save countless lives, people listen to celebrities who question the science, with no scientific training or basis at all. On climate change, despite overwhelming evidence from the scientific community that the increase in greenhouse gasses poses an existential threat to our civilization, industry and political voices lead us to question the strength of those conclusions, and to think that maybe it's not that big of a deal, and so decisive action is unnecessary.
We don't have a good track record of listening to the science.
In this particular instance, I'm pretty sure that historians are going to say that the turning point of public perception in North America was March 10 - and not just because that was the day it was declared a pandemic, but because that was the day when the NBA suspended its season, triggering a landslide of major private sector entities (including the NHL and MLB) following suit. Even to me, the NBA's action was surprisingly decisive, but it set the standard for other businesses. And it sent a clear signal to everyone: Covid 19 is going to affect your day-to-day life. Deal with it.
Punctuated by Italy starting its lockdown in the same timeframe, the message was poignant.
If the NBA hadn't made the decision to suspend its season, would other sport leagues have done so? Would people have started to accept that Covid 19 is a big deal? Would politicians have come to accept the recommendations of health officials that we close recreational facilities, gyms, public venues, courts, bars, courts, etc.? Did the NBA save the world through its example?
We've quickly come to the point where we want to hear from health officials more than our own elected leaders, where Dr. Deena Hinshaw - Alberta's Chief Medical Officer - has become a celebrity, a household name, and a calming presence. And by far the most comforting phrase I've heard from any politician - and I've heard it from both Justin Trudeau and Jason Kenney - is the assurance that they are listening to, and following, the recommendations of their public health experts.
We're mostly listening to the science now, and we are taking action - albeit still belatedly - before our emergency rooms get inundated with pandemic infections. Still, it creates this eerie atmosphere throughout the community - a suspense, as we wait for the nightmare that we know is coming.
Honestly, I don't really know what's coming. Will our health system be able to handle the deluge? I hope so, but I don't know. Will the outbreak be extended, or perhaps suppressed as it seems to have been in China and South Korea? Hard to say.
I don't doubt that the measures we've put into place will remain at least until sometime in May. Perhaps longer. We'll likely see more government action that, ten days ago, would have been unthinkable.
I don't expect the crisis to extend to the supply chain. While there are supply chain challenges to be overcome, our government has shown itself to be alive to those concerns. I'm confident that food will continue to be available. I'm equally confident that our municipal utilities - like water, electricity, and gas - will remain intact.
After the infection peaks, things will slowly get moving again - but 'normal', in the sense of 'the way things were' will never happen again. We're headed into a recession more akin to the 1930s than anything else we've ever seen. And as we rebuild our economy, it's never going to look the same.
But as we pick up the pieces after the next few disastrous months, there are a few things that I hope we bear in mind.
Pay attention to the science. Stop listening to memes, stop listening to celebrities, stop listening to politicians.
Recognize that the 'easy' solution is often not the right solution. We are inclined - almost programmed - to believe the answer that requires the least or easiest action from us. I call it "inactivism" - the political movement that resists meaningful change. When the powerful, successful, and wealthy tell us that "trickle-down" economics will improve our lives - that the best way to improve society is for them to maximize their own profit - we should be skeptical of that kind of reasoning. When we hear that the environment requires no great sacrifices on our own parts, it is too easy to believe and accept it because it is what we want to be true.
Similarly, when we see a factual or ideological claim that accords with our own pre-existing beliefs, it is very easy for us to accept it uncritically - or, equally, to reject a claim that doesn't.
It will be more important than ever, moving forward, to critically examine the various factual and ideological claims we see online. Memes, in particular, can be sources of humour, but never sources of information.
Social enterprise is both possible and important. It hasn't all been perfect, but in the face of impending disaster, we have joined together to take some pretty incredible actions and make collective sacrifices.
But when a time of real crisis arrived, individuals and businesses turned to the state for assistance and guidance, and to each other. Public institutions are important, particularly in difficult times.
Collective action toward major problems is something we need to make happen in other areas. Likewise, social safety nets are critically important - not only do they help those in difficult situations, but they give consumer confidence to those who are economically precarious.
Workers deserve more respect. In many contexts, and particularly for disabled workers, the idea of 'working from home' has been a much sought ideal for a long time. We're finding creative ways that address existing problems of flexibility in workplaces and business environments, and we should hold on to those solutions.
Similarly, we shouldn't forget the contributions by essential yet often-overlooked members of our supply chain - front line employees in grocery stores; farmers; and nurses.
A lot can get done on the internet. The legal profession is particularly notorious for relying on paper. Filing voluminous paper briefs, using fax machines...this all has to stop. Courts have shifted toward electronic filing in this time, and law societies have relaxed the 'in person' requirements for conducting legal business. (The tech has been working toward this for a while. Let's institutionalize it quickly.) As well, virtual meeting places are the future.
And, for the record, my favourite 'pandemic problem-solving' notion is that, if the universities stretch thin Zoom's bandwidth capabilities, we can host classes and business meetings on World of Warcraft.
This is a difficult time, and it will get harder. Be smart, be careful, take care of yourselves, and support each other.
And then ask yourself why it takes a pandemic to get us to do those things.
But what I want to address here is our own response to a pending crisis. And I'm addressing it now because I want people to pay attention to how this has unfolded up to now, and how it unfolds moving forward.
Of course, we're not out of the woods yet. We're barely into the woods. Most of the disruption to our lives has to do with the response to the pandemic - cancellation of sports leagues, of public events, closure of public venues, widespread quarantine recommendations, TP shortages...
Make no mistake: These reactions are warranted. Covid-19, if not contained, will be one of the biggest crises ever faced by our civilization. There's still a lot we don't know, but based on conservative estimates of its Case Fatality Rate, we can expect tens of millions of fatalities worldwide.
And it's probably not going to be contained, generally speaking. China and South Korea have had some success in limiting their own epidemics, so there's hope that maybe we won't see quite the infection count of a totally uncontained pandemic, but we're still looking at something very severe here. The Italian experience should show all of us just how sensitive we are to a public health crisis - and the confirmed infection count in Italy remains, at this moment, remains less than one half of one tenth of one percent of their population...and we're talking about an infection that could reach 70% or higher.
And yet...there's still an inclination in some quarters to look at the extreme response, and the resulting economic impact, and suggest that the low infection count and death count makes those responses overreactions. The WHO declared a pandemic on March 10, but it's not hard to find plenty of people - both officials and members of the public - querying its seriousness both before and after that declaration.
On or about February 26, the President of the United States reflected on the then-15 cases in the country, and claimed that it was going to decline to be "close to zero". On March 9, he tweeted:
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!In the 10 days since then, that 546 cases (in the US) has grown to nearly 14,000, and counting, with growing numbers of new cases each day.
This past weekend, we saw a State Governor and a prominent member of the US Congress encouraging people to continue to go out to restaurants and use public services. This week, Trump has bragged about how well under control it is in the US.
From YouTubers, to Fox News, to various memes, there have been large numbers of people trying to 'add some perspective' by comparing the case and death count (so far) to influenza.
There is a lot that we don't know about Covid-19. We don't know exactly how contagious it is, but we know that, conservatively, it's a lot more contagious than influenza. We don't know exactly how deadly it is, but we know that, conservatively, it's a lot more deadly than most strains of influenza.
We're seeing those last vestiges of "This isn't a big deal" fade into the background. Trump has changed his tune, claiming to have regarded it as a pandemic long before it was designated as a pandemic (though his tone, very unfortunately, remains one of 'tragedy averted', claiming to have taken appropriate actions to mitigate the crisis); Fox commentators have stopped minimizing it; and the broader public is beginning to see the anticipated exponential growth around the world. Even still, there are kids partying on Spring Break, snowbirds refusing to come home, and Florida's governor refusing to close beaches.
The gravitas of this situation is one that can't help but dawn slowly on us, as a society.
For my part, I thought I was prepared. I've been looking at expert analyses and running my own numbers for five or six weeks now, and I've reached my own high-confidence conclusions that this is going to be a real and severe crisis. (Not a "We're all going to run out of food and toilet paper" crisis, but a crisis nonetheless.) In the last several days, as businesses shut down, and dystopian announcement signs herald various closures "UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE" in a manner reminiscent of any number of post-apocalyptic movies and games, and as the health system braces for what's coming in what will seem like the calm before the storm, I've realized just how emotionally and psychologically unprepared I was for the actual arrival of this time.
And it isn't just about messaging and psychological preparedness - though, in this context, messaging is important, because social distancing is a genuinely important societal activity that is going to happen less if our leaders are playing down the scope of the crisis. There are also genuine response failures. Some are preparatory, like cuts to the CDC's pandemic preparedness programs; others are early responses, like the absolute fiasco in CDC's refusal to accept the WHO's testing guidelines, and faults in the development of its own test kits; others are early screening and contact-tracing problems, like allowing ourselves to fall behind the curve in terms of self-isolation recommendations for returns from epidemic zones: For instance, by the time Alberta recommended travelers from Iran self-isolate, there were about 1500 reported infections in Iran, and multiple reported cases of infected Canadians returning from Iran.
But our lack of preparedness, and the tendency in certain quarters to minimize it until too late...there will be a price to pay for that. And I think that we need to keep it, somewhere in the back of our minds, WHY we're paying that price.
The Internet and the Democratization of Expertise
In an article in 1980, renowned science fiction author Isaac Asimov published an article in Newsweek, including the following:
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.’In the age of the internet, we have seen this trend explode. Fact is a matter of opinion; expertise is a matter of politics. And none of this is new, but the internet has provided rich soil for the growth of Asimov's cult of ignorance.
The internet is an astonishing tool for the sharing of information. The real-time consolidation of Covid-19 is, in its own way, a stunning display of human innovation that could not have happened twenty years ago.
And yet it is an equally powerful tool for disinformation. I can't tell you how many pseudo-scientific myths I've seen cross my social media feeds, including but not limited to:
- You can self-diagnose Covid-19 by holding your breath;
- You can prevent infection by drinking water or gargling vinegar;
- You can keep yourself safe from Covid-19 with a hairdryer;
- Advil increases your risk of complications from Covid-19...
But there are established channels of misinformation on the internet. From profiteering peddlers of conspiracy theories, to hostile foreign troll farms, to domestic special interest and political groups, there are a lot of people trying to mislead us, for various agendas. You may not actually pay attention to these specific individuals with specific agendas, but you're likely to see memes and posts coming from those corners of the internet, working through your social media feed. And people, on the whole, turn out to be really awful at differentiating between legitimate information from reliable sources, and misinformation. On vaccines, despite all the medical evidence that they are overwhelmingly safe and save countless lives, people listen to celebrities who question the science, with no scientific training or basis at all. On climate change, despite overwhelming evidence from the scientific community that the increase in greenhouse gasses poses an existential threat to our civilization, industry and political voices lead us to question the strength of those conclusions, and to think that maybe it's not that big of a deal, and so decisive action is unnecessary.
We don't have a good track record of listening to the science.
Why We're Listening to the Science Now
In this particular instance, I'm pretty sure that historians are going to say that the turning point of public perception in North America was March 10 - and not just because that was the day it was declared a pandemic, but because that was the day when the NBA suspended its season, triggering a landslide of major private sector entities (including the NHL and MLB) following suit. Even to me, the NBA's action was surprisingly decisive, but it set the standard for other businesses. And it sent a clear signal to everyone: Covid 19 is going to affect your day-to-day life. Deal with it.
Punctuated by Italy starting its lockdown in the same timeframe, the message was poignant.
If the NBA hadn't made the decision to suspend its season, would other sport leagues have done so? Would people have started to accept that Covid 19 is a big deal? Would politicians have come to accept the recommendations of health officials that we close recreational facilities, gyms, public venues, courts, bars, courts, etc.? Did the NBA save the world through its example?
We've quickly come to the point where we want to hear from health officials more than our own elected leaders, where Dr. Deena Hinshaw - Alberta's Chief Medical Officer - has become a celebrity, a household name, and a calming presence. And by far the most comforting phrase I've heard from any politician - and I've heard it from both Justin Trudeau and Jason Kenney - is the assurance that they are listening to, and following, the recommendations of their public health experts.
We're mostly listening to the science now, and we are taking action - albeit still belatedly - before our emergency rooms get inundated with pandemic infections. Still, it creates this eerie atmosphere throughout the community - a suspense, as we wait for the nightmare that we know is coming.
What's Next
Honestly, I don't really know what's coming. Will our health system be able to handle the deluge? I hope so, but I don't know. Will the outbreak be extended, or perhaps suppressed as it seems to have been in China and South Korea? Hard to say.
I don't doubt that the measures we've put into place will remain at least until sometime in May. Perhaps longer. We'll likely see more government action that, ten days ago, would have been unthinkable.
I don't expect the crisis to extend to the supply chain. While there are supply chain challenges to be overcome, our government has shown itself to be alive to those concerns. I'm confident that food will continue to be available. I'm equally confident that our municipal utilities - like water, electricity, and gas - will remain intact.
After the infection peaks, things will slowly get moving again - but 'normal', in the sense of 'the way things were' will never happen again. We're headed into a recession more akin to the 1930s than anything else we've ever seen. And as we rebuild our economy, it's never going to look the same.
But as we pick up the pieces after the next few disastrous months, there are a few things that I hope we bear in mind.
The Lessons
Pay attention to the science. Stop listening to memes, stop listening to celebrities, stop listening to politicians.
Recognize that the 'easy' solution is often not the right solution. We are inclined - almost programmed - to believe the answer that requires the least or easiest action from us. I call it "inactivism" - the political movement that resists meaningful change. When the powerful, successful, and wealthy tell us that "trickle-down" economics will improve our lives - that the best way to improve society is for them to maximize their own profit - we should be skeptical of that kind of reasoning. When we hear that the environment requires no great sacrifices on our own parts, it is too easy to believe and accept it because it is what we want to be true.
Similarly, when we see a factual or ideological claim that accords with our own pre-existing beliefs, it is very easy for us to accept it uncritically - or, equally, to reject a claim that doesn't.
It will be more important than ever, moving forward, to critically examine the various factual and ideological claims we see online. Memes, in particular, can be sources of humour, but never sources of information.
Social enterprise is both possible and important. It hasn't all been perfect, but in the face of impending disaster, we have joined together to take some pretty incredible actions and make collective sacrifices.
But when a time of real crisis arrived, individuals and businesses turned to the state for assistance and guidance, and to each other. Public institutions are important, particularly in difficult times.
Collective action toward major problems is something we need to make happen in other areas. Likewise, social safety nets are critically important - not only do they help those in difficult situations, but they give consumer confidence to those who are economically precarious.
Workers deserve more respect. In many contexts, and particularly for disabled workers, the idea of 'working from home' has been a much sought ideal for a long time. We're finding creative ways that address existing problems of flexibility in workplaces and business environments, and we should hold on to those solutions.
Similarly, we shouldn't forget the contributions by essential yet often-overlooked members of our supply chain - front line employees in grocery stores; farmers; and nurses.
A lot can get done on the internet. The legal profession is particularly notorious for relying on paper. Filing voluminous paper briefs, using fax machines...this all has to stop. Courts have shifted toward electronic filing in this time, and law societies have relaxed the 'in person' requirements for conducting legal business. (The tech has been working toward this for a while. Let's institutionalize it quickly.) As well, virtual meeting places are the future.
And, for the record, my favourite 'pandemic problem-solving' notion is that, if the universities stretch thin Zoom's bandwidth capabilities, we can host classes and business meetings on World of Warcraft.
Conclusion
This is a difficult time, and it will get harder. Be smart, be careful, take care of yourselves, and support each other.
And then ask yourself why it takes a pandemic to get us to do those things.
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